Wall Street loves this festive time of year, as Santa Claus traditionally brings the markets the gift of a rally. However, this year a variety of factors have the markets moving all over the place. Who’s in charge of this year’s Santa Claus Rally, and what might cause Santa to miss Christmas?
2016 Santa Claus Rally
Last year, the rally was largely driven by the election and the man in the big red suit, Donald Trump. The Trump administration’s pro-business attitude launched the markets into record highs in 2016, with new heights being reached consistently throughout 2017. Big business remains optimistic, and traders and investors alike eagerly await more pro-business policies.
Will Congress Steal Christmas
As the tax reform bill continues to move, the markets are responding erratically yet generally upward. Wall Street is mostly for the plan, so a block in the reform could cause a market downturn. Along with the largest one-time tax reduction in U.S. history, the business tax system may shift from a worldwide tax to a territorial system. This has been on big business’ Christmas list for years, and they may finally get their wish.
Who plays the Grinch
As tensions with North Korea continue to heat up, the markets respond accordingly. Should another event trigger escalation of the conflict, the Santa Claus Rally may not continue its flight. Beyond North Korea, a plethora of other factors may pull back on the reigns of the rally, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran’s conflict escalating, diminishing trade relations with China or massive fear of a stock market bubble. Some experts are anticipating a large drop soon, but the stock market is not displaying signs of reaching that point yet.
While the markets have already begun a holly jolly Santa Claus Rally, there are many variables that may steal Wall Street’s festive spirits. Although it seems there is a lot of competition for the Grinch’s role this year, the analyst will have no lack of circumstances to blame or to credit by 2018.